The common thread throughout the conference was that sustainability must be a top priority in the expansion of biofuels worldwide. While many speakers found this path in second-generation ethanol and other advanced biofuels, Marcos Jank, president and chief executive officer of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) said that he considered Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane to be a sustainable biofuel based on the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved and low percentage of arable land used.
Jank said in Brazil, the equivalent of 25.8 million tons of carbon dioxide was avoided in 2007, thanks to the use of ethanol. He also said that food versus fuel is not an issue for the country. “Sugarcane for ethanol accounts for only 1 percent of the arable land in Brazil, reducing our gasoline consumption by 50 percent,” Jank said. “This is in a country where gasoline is considered the alternative fuel.”
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Brazil produced 23 billion liters (6.08 billion gallons) of ethanol in 2007, and the domestic sales of E100 were 1 billion liters (264 million gallons), according to Jank. “This demand is driven by consumer choice—90 percent of new cars sold in Brazil are flex fuel—representing more than 25 percent of the fleet,” Jank said, adding that another driver of Brazil’s success is the mandatory blending of 20 percent to 25 percent of ethanol into gasoline.
Projections for Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane show tremendous potential with 47 billion liters (12.42 billion gallons) by 2016 and 65 billion liters (17.17 billion gallons) by 2021.
Most of this expanded production would be exported—an unpredictable market for Brazil. This is why Jank is in favor of making ethanol a globally traded energy commodity by lifting all tariff and nontariff barriers. “Sugarcane is the most competitive raw material for the production of ethanol—competitive with any gasoline obtained from a U.S. $70 barrel of crude—and has very positive energy and environmental balances,” Jank said, adding that Brazil does not intend to supply ethanol for the rest of the world. “We are part of the solution, not the solution,” he said.
While Brazil is a net exporter of ethanol, China will have to look to next-generation technologies for ethanol and other biofuels to become a significant part of its fuel supply, according to information provided by Xiaohui Wang, director and senior analyst of the Market Monitoring Division of the China Grains and Oils Information Center, a government think tank researching grain and oilseed supply and demand. Wang’s analysis of Chinese agriculture and food supply revealed the country’s limitations for grain-based ethanol expansion. “Chinese agricultural products will continue to increase yields and efficiency, but the lack of water and arable land will limit China’s future in grain output,” Wang said. “With a rising population and increased standard of living we must ask who will feed Chinese people in the future.”
Wang explained that to expand agricultural production the Chinese government has implemented policies that will improve crop yields, increase storage and restrict uses for arable land, but he stressed that food will remain the priority for Chinese agriculture.
It is for this reason that China’s largest food manufacturer and ethanol producer is focusing its research and development efforts on cellulosic ethanol. The China National Cereals, Oils, & Foodstuffs Corp. (COFCO) produces 820,000 tons (275 million gallons) of ethanol in China annually, which is half the country’s total capacity. “Our demand for cellulose is more than in the United States,” Guojun Yue, assistant president of COFCO told the audience during the general session. “With the development of biomass technologies we have a goal to produce 2 million tons (670 million gallons) of biomass ethanol by 2010 and 10 million tons (3.3 billion gallons) by 2020.” However, Yue did not dismiss the production of grain-based ethanol altogether. He explained that corn and wheat are laying down the foundation for nongrain ethanol in China, and the second stage will include sweet potato and sweet sorghum—which is still considered a grain. “This will provide a transition period, but the future of ethanol in China lies in cellulose.”
A U.S. company that is trying to find a way to supply the Chinese biofuels market is Coskata Inc., a cutting-edge technology firm that is commercializing a proprietary process for the production of fuel-grade ethanol. Wes Bolsen, chief marketing officer and vice president of business development for Coskata, discussed China’s rising potential for second-generation biofuels and outlined his company’s solution to its food-versus-fuel dilemma. Bolsen’s figures showed that Chinese grain-based ethanol production has grown from 100 million gallons in 2004 to about 500 million in 2008. He attributed this increase to E10 mandates in several Chinese provinces and cities, but cautioned that “high food demand limits the further growth of first-generation ethanol in China.” He added that corn ethanol is not economical without subsidies in China, and said that cellulosic ethanol from the
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