EIA increases 2014 ethanol production forecast

By Erin Voegele | November 13, 2013

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the November issue of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting ethanol production will reach 900,000 barrels per day in 2014.

In the October issue of the STEO, the EIA forecast that ethanol production would average 880,000 barrels per day in 2014. That prediction was increased by 20,000 barrels per day in the November release.

According to the most recent STEO, ethanol production increased from an average of 806,000 barrels per day in October 2012 to 892,000 barrels per day in October 2013. Biodiesel production is also on the rise, reaching a record level of 128 million gallons in August.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA forecasts ethanol production will reach 890,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2013, averaging 860,000 barrels per day in all of 2013. During the first quarter of 2014, production is expected to hold steady at 890,000 barrels per day, increasing to 900,000 barrels per day in the second, third and fourth quarters.

The November STEO also notes that gasoline prices dropped by more than 40 cents per gallon since September. The EIA forecasts retail gas prices will average $3.24 per gallon during the fourth quarter of 2013, a 10 cent per gallon drop compared to last month’s STEO. Overall, gasoline prices are expected to average $3.50 per gallon in 2013 and $3.39 per gallon in 2014.