EIA maintains 2018, 2019 ethanol production forecasts

By Erin Voegele | October 10, 2018

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the October edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, maintaining its September forecast for overall 2018 and 2019 ethanol production, but making slight changes to its 2019 quarterly forecast. 

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.05 million barrels per day this year, falling to 1.03 million barrels per day next year. In 2017, production averaged 1.04 million barrels per day.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA predicts ethanol production will average 1.04 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of this year. In 2019, production is expected to average 1.03 million barrels per day during the first quarter, increase to 1.04 million barrels per day during the second quarter, and return to an average of 1.03 million barrels per day during the third and fourth quarters.

Ethanol consumption is forecast to reach 940,000 barrels per day this year, flat when compared to 2017 consumption levels. In 2019, consumption is expected to increase slightly, reaching 950,000 barrels per day.

EIA’s most recent weekly data shows ethanol production averaged 1.015 million barrels per day the week of Sept. 29, down from 1.036 million barrels per day the previous week. The EIA’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. exported 2.487 million barrels of ethanol in July, primarily to Canada, Brazil and India.