EIA maintains 2019, 2020 ethanol forecasts

By Erin Voegele | August 14, 2019

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has maintained its forecasts for 2019 and 2020 ethanol production in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released Aug. 6. Short-term forecasts for ethanol consumption were also maintained.  

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day in 2019, up from 1.05 million barrels per day last year. Production is currently expected to rebound to an average of 1.05 million barrels per day next year.  

On a quarterly basis, U.S. ethanol production is expected to average 1.03 million barrels per day during the third and fourth quarters of this year. That level of production is expected to be maintained during the first quarter of 2020 before rebounding to 1.05 million barrels per day for the remainder of the year.

Ethanol consumption is expected to average approximately 940,000 barrels per day this year, level with 2018, increasing to 950,000 barrels per day in 2020.

The latest weekly data published by the EIA shows ethanol production reached 1.045 million barrels per day the week ending Aug. 9, up from 1.04 million barrels per day the previous week. Weekly ethanol ending stocks reached 23.883 million barrels the week ending Aug. 9, up from 23.117 million barrels the prior week.

The agency’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. imported 313,000 barrels of ethanol in April, all from Brazil. The U.S. exported 2.375 million barrels of ethanol in May, primarily to Canada, India and Brazil.