EIA increases 2021, 2022 forecasts for ethanol blending

By Erin Voegele | June 08, 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecasts for 2021 and 2022 ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 8. The outlook for 2021 and 2022 ethanol blending, however, was increased.

The EIA currently predicts U.S. fuel ethanol production will average 960,000 barrels per day in 2021, increasing to 990,000 barrels per day in 2022. Both forecasts were maintained from the May STEO. Ethanol production averaged 910,000 barrels per day last year.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 980,000 barrels per day during the second quarter of this year, increasing to 990,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and falling slightly to 980,00 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In 2022, ethanol production is expected to average 970,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, increase to 990,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, and reach 1 million barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters.

Ethanol blending is currently expected to average 900,000 barrels per day in 2021, and 920,000 barrels per day in 2022. Both forecasts were increased from the May STEO, which predicted ethanol blending to be at 890,000 barrels per day this year and 910,000 barrels per day next year. Ethanol blending was at 820,000 barrels per day in 2020.