EIA increases 2022 ethanol production forecast

By Erin Voegele | August 10, 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2022 ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Aug. 10. The forecasts for 2021 ethanol production and 2021 and 2022 ethanol blending were maintained.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 970,000 barrels per day this year, up from 910,000 barrels per day in 2020. In 2022, ethanol production is currently expected to average 1.01 million barrels per day, up slightly from the agency’s forecast of 1 million barrels per day made in the July STEO.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 1.01 million barrels per day during the third quarter of this year, falling to 980,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In 2022, ethanol production is expected to average 980,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.02 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.03 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Ethanol blending is currently expected to average 900,000 barrels per day in 2021, up from 820,000 barrels per day in 2020. Moving into 2020, ethanol blending is expected to increase to an average of 920,000 barrels per day.