EIA increases 2022 ethanol production forecast

By Erin Voegele | December 07, 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2022 U.S. fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Dec. 7. The forecast for 2021 ethanol production was maintained.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 970,000 barrels per day this year, a forecast maintained from the November STEO. Production is expected to expand to 1.01 million barrels per day in 2022, up slightly from the 1-million-barrel-per-day forecast made last month. Fuel ethanol production averaged 910,000 barrels per day in 2020.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 1.04 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of this year. In 2022, production is expected to average 970,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, increasing to 1.01 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and reaching 1.02 million barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters.

The EIA currently predicts ethanol blending will average 900,000 barrels per day in 2021 and 920,000 barrels per day in 2022. Both forecasts were maintained from last month. Ethanol blending averaged 820,000 barrels per day last year.