WASDE: U.S., global corn supplies down, exports up

By | March 05, 2009
Web exclusive posted April 9, 2009, at 11:07 a.m. CST

In the April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA said U.S. corn ending stocks and global coarse grain supplies for 2008/09 are projected lower this month, while world corn exports for 2008/09 are projected higher.

"U.S. corn ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected 40 million bushels lower this month as higher expected feed and residual use more than offsets a reduction in food, seed, and industrial use," the report said. "Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels as March 1 stocks indicated higher-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 10 million bushels with lower projected use for starch (other than for fuel and beverage alcohol) more than offsetting higher expected use for sweeteners. Corn use for starch is projected down 10 percent from 2007/08 as declining demand for construction materials and paper products reduce demand for starch. The 2008/09 season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.00 to $4.40 per bushel, up 10 cents on both ends of the range. This compares with the 2007/08 record of $4.20 per bushel.

"Global coarse grain supplies for 2008/09 are projected 2.7 million tons lower this month with lower sorghum, barley, and corn production," the report continued. "Much of the reduction is based on lower production estimates for these crops in Ethiopia as the historical series is revised to reflect a change in officially reported statistics for the country. Though reduced from last month=s estimates, 2008/09 featured bumper crops for Ethiopia. World sorghum production is lowered 1.3 million tons as 0.7-million-ton reductions for Argentina and Ethiopia and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for China are only partly offset by increases for Burkina Faso and Mexico. Argentina sorghum production is projected lower as additional dryness and heat during March further reduced yield prospects. World barley production is lowered 0.7 million tons with a 0.6-million-ton reduction for Ethiopia and a 0.1-million-ton reduction for China. World corn production is lowered 0.7 million tons with 0.5-million-ton reductions for Ethiopia, Chile, and Vietnam, and a 0.4-million-ton reduction for Iran. Partly offsetting is higher projected production for Brazil. Brazil corn production is raised 1.0 million tons reflecting higher indicated yields for the primary summer (southern hemisphere) crop now being harvested.

"World corn exports for 2008/09 are projected 1.2 million tons higher this month," the report said. "Exports are raised 0.5 million tons for Ukraine and 0.4 million tons for Russia with smaller increases for Croatia and Thailand. Imports are raised for Chile, Iran, Venezuela, and Vietnam, but reduced for Mexico, Indonesia, and Thailand. Lower corn imports for these countries reflect lower expected feeding. An increase in projected sorghum feed use for Mexico is partly offsetting. Corn feed use is also lowered for Iran, Chile, and Vietnam. Global corn feed use, however, is nearly unchanged with the projected increase for the United States. Global corn ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected 1.3 million tons lower. Stocks are projected 1.0 million tons higher for Brazil but 1.0 million tons lower for the United States. Other major reductions are for Ukraine, Russia, Iran, and Vietnam."